The nature and extent of the HIV/AIDS epidemic varies considerably by country and region. HIV prevalence rates range from less than 1 percent, as in East Asia, to more than 25 percent in some sub-Saharan African countries.2 In some places, HIV/AIDS afflicts the general population, spreading through unprotected heterosexual contact with multiple partners. In other places, HIV/AIDS is concentrated, generally among the groups at highest risk – injecting drug users, men who have sex with men, and commercial sex workers and their regular sex partners.
In the 21st century, HIV/AIDS trends vary by region, country, and population. Some regions, including East Asia and Oceania, are experiencing an increase in new infections, while the number of new infections has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Prevalence is stabilizing or declining in most regions, though there are places or groups experiencing an increase. For example, prevalence has declined among the general population in Cambodia and has nearly doubled among pregnant women in Viet Nam.1 Nearly all countries are working to provide treatment for those with AIDS and to reach out with prevention interventions to those at risk of infection.
Global HIV Infections, 2008
| Regions |
Adults and Children Newly Infected with HIV |
Adults and Children Living with HIV |
Adult and Children Deaths Due to AIDS |
| Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.9 million |
22.4 million |
1.4 million |
| South & Southeast Asia |
280,000 |
3.8 million |
270,000 |
| Eastern Europe & Central Asia |
110,000 |
1.5 million |
87,000 |
| Latin America |
170,000 |
2.0 million |
77,000 |
| East Asia |
75,000 |
850,000 |
59,000 |
| Middle East & North Africa |
35,000 |
310,000 |
20,000 |
| North America |
55,000 |
1.4 million |
25,000 |
| Caribbean |
20,000 |
240,000 |
12,000 |
| Western & Central Europe |
30,000 |
850,000 |
13,000 |
| Oceania |
3,900 |
59,000 |
2,000 |
| World* |
2.7 million |
33.4 million |
2 million |
*Percentages do not add up to 100 due to rounding
- About two-thirds of all people infected with HIV, 22.4 million, live in sub-Saharan Africa.1 Adult prevalence is highest in this region, where 5 percent of adults aged 15 – 49 years are infected with HIV.
- Outside of sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the largest number of people living with HIV is Asia.
Sub-Saharan Africa
(This region includes Southern, East, West and Central Africa)2
| Number infected |
22.4 million (two-thirds of global burden) |
| Percent of infected adults who are women |
54 percent |
| Adult prevalence rate |
5.2 |
| Adults and children newly infected, 2008 |
1.9 million |
| Adult and child deaths due to AIDS, 2008 |
1.4 million (70 percent of global AIDS deaths) |
| Access to ARVs |
30 percent |
| Main mode of transmission |
Heterosexual intercourse |
In 2008, 1.9 million adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa were newly infected and 1.4 million died – representing a decrease in new infections since 2001.1 About two-thirds of all people infected with HIV HIV (22.4 million) live in this region, which is home to about one-tenth of the global population. AIDS is likely to remain the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa for the next several decades.3 Although the epidemic continues at high levels, newly derived estimates suggest that the epidemic is stabilizing.
- The rate of new infections peaked in the mid- or late 1990s in most countries.1 - 5 Similarly, the prevalence rate, or proportion of people living with HIV, peaked in the late 1990s and has recently declined somewhat.
- Although the incidence and prevalence rates are declining, the number of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa has been growing since the 1980s. This may be due to several factors, including an accumulation of HIV-infected people who survive longer and have greater access to life-extending antiretroviral drugs. In addition, population growth puts a growing number of people at risk of infection. The increase in the number of people living with HIV has slowed in recent years.6
- Adult prevalence is highest in this region, where 5.0 percent of adults aged 15-49 years are infected with HIV and it continues to spread on a large scale through heterosexual contact.1 HIV/tuberculosis co-infection is also a growing problem in the region.7
- Women are disproportionately affected in sub-Saharan Africa – over three-fourths of women infected with HIV live in the region.8
- Gender-based inequity and violence contribute to the rise of HIV among women and girls, who often lack the power to decide whether or not to have sex or use a condom.9
- It is estimated that more than 85 percent of HIV-infected pregnant women live in sub-Saharan Africa.8
- Lack of access to prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services results in over 1,000 children becoming infected daily.10
- The world’s highest rates of both the spread of HIV from mothers to their children and the transmission of HIV in health-care settings occur in sub-Saharan Africa.3
- AIDS has devastated families across the region, leaving an estimated 11.4 million children without one or both parents.1 This region is also home to 90 percent of children living with HIV.
- In 2007, nearly 70 percent of people in need were unable to access treatment. While access to prevention to mother-to-child transmission and ARVs for HIV-infected remained low, coverage rates have dramatically increased within the past years, due in large part to and increase in donor funding. Pediatric ARV coverage increased almost threefold between 2005 and 2007 and the percentage of HIV-infected pregnant women receiving treatment increased from 10 percent in 2004 to 33 percent in 2007.36
- The hardest-hit countries in the world are in sub-Saharan Africa. Prevalence varies widely by sub-region, with the highest levels in southern Africa and lowest levels in West and Central Africa. Although East Africa was one of the hardest hit regions in the early stages of the pandemic, levels of HIV have declined in some East African countries.11
Hardest-Hit Countries - Prevalence Among Adults Aged 15–49 years1, 2, 12, 13
| Rank |
Country |
Prevalence Among Adults, 2007
(percent) |
Total Population |
Likely Epidemic Trend |
Gini Index of Income Inequality |
| 1 |
Swaziland |
26.1 |
1,123,913 |
decreasing |
50.4 |
| 2 |
Botswana |
23.9 |
1,990,876 |
significant decrease |
60.5 |
| 3 |
Lesotho |
23.2 |
2,130,819 |
mixed, decreasing or stable depending on location |
63.2 |
| 4 |
South Africa |
18.1 |
49,052,489 |
stable |
57.8 |
| 5 |
Namibia |
15.3 |
2,108,665 |
decreasing |
74.3 |
| 6 |
Zimbabwe |
15.3 |
11,392,629 |
mixed, signifiganly decreasing or decreasing depending on location |
50.1 |
| 7 |
Zambia |
15.2 |
11,862,740 |
stable |
50.8 |
| 8 |
Mozambique |
12.5 |
21,669,278 |
stable |
47.3 |
| 9 |
Malawi |
11.9 |
14,268,711 |
mixed, signifigantly decreasing or stable depending on location |
39 |
One theory of why AIDS has spread so greatly in sub-Saharan Africa: 3, 14
Although the average number of sexual partners is similar in North America, Western Europe, and Africa, one theory posits that HIV/AIDS has so dramatically spread in Africa because of the practice of having multiple concurrent sexual partners. An estimated 20-40 percent of adults in many places in sub-Saharan Africa report concurrent partners, in contrast to serial, monogamous sexual partners as common in the West. Sexual networks may be as small as three to four people, but these networks often overlap, creating an environment for STIs to spread. This may be partly a product of the tradition of polygamy and partly due to women living in poverty, seeking gifts or monetary support from men who expect sex in return.14 After years of unprotected sexual intercourse in this context, the virus will eventually spread from any HIV-infected persons to the others, from one network to the next.
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- Southern Africa (view country list).2 Nine of the countries with the world’s highest HIV prevalence rates are found in this sub-region. More than one-third of people with HIV globally live in southern Africa, and one-third of deaths due to AIDS occur in the region.
- Between 1985 and 1990, deaths of adults aged 20-49 comprised 20 percent of total deaths. Mainly fueled by AIDS, the proportion of deaths among this age group has increased three-fold.4 In many southern African countries, the spread of HIV appears to be linked with migration, commerce and transport.1, 4, 16-18,
Gender inequities and HIV/AIDS in Botswana and Swaziland:
A 2007 report by Physicians for Human Rights suggests that men and women in Botswana who expressed at least three gender discriminatory beliefs were 2.7 times more likely to engage in unprotected sexual acts with non-primary partners. In Swaziland, men and women who expressed at least six gender discriminatory beliefs were twice as likely to engage in sexual acts with various partners.19 This report underlines the extent to which gender inequalities pervade these societies and directly correspond to behaviors that increase risk of HIV infection.
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- The recent population-based survey demonstrates that Swaziland remains the hardest-hit country, though prevalence is lower than previously believed.1 More than one-fourth of adults are infected with HIV; with women accounting for over half of infected individuals. Close behind are Botswana and Lesotho, with more than one-fifth of the adult population living with HIV.1
- In Zimbabwe the number of adults living with HIV has declined substantially.1 This decline is partly due to behavioral changes, but is also likely due to the high AIDS mortality rate – as thousands die weekly due to AIDS-related causes.
- Access to life-saving drugs has increased to 65 percent.
- Counterfeit drugs and economic turmoil are among the top barriers to access.12, 23
- About 2 million infected South Africans are unaware of their HIV status, their vulnerability, and/or their ability to spread HIV to others.
- South Africa has the largest population infected with HIV, as about 5.7 million adults and children are living with HIV; recent data suggest that the epidemic is stabilizing.1
- More than one in four of all pregnant women have HIV/AIDS and each year, about 50,000 children are born with HIV.2, 10
- Mozambique is the only country in southern Africa that has shown an increase in prevalence when it was previously thought to have stabilized.1 Here prevalence is alarmingly high in the central and southern regions that border Zimbabwe and South Africa.
- East Africa (view country list).2 HIV prevalence rates are now much lower in East Africa than they were in the early years of the epidemic, partly due to mortality and behavioral change in some cases.1 However, prevalence varies within the region and within countries.
- In Uganda, the prevalence rate has stabilized at 5 among men and 7 percent among women.1
- Prevention and treatment efforts have been credited with reducing the death toll, as nearly half of those needing medications have gained access to antiretroviral drugs, largely due to support from the Global Fund, PEPFAR and non-governmental organizations.
- HIV/tuberculosis (TB) co-infection is a large problem – about two-thirds of those infected with TB subsequently develop HIV infection.22 More support and care services are needed.12
- Recent surveys suggest that safer behaviors are not being adopted as in the past, which threatens to reverse or stunt the progress made against HIV/AIDS in Uganda.1
- Kenya and Tanzania have large populations infected with HIV with 1 million or more people infected in each country.2
- Despite declines in prevalence in Kenya and stabilization in Tanzania, injection drug use is gaining ground as a mode of transmission of HIV in both Kenya and Tanzania, and among both men and women.24
- Evidence has emerged to show that Kenya’s declines are due in part to the adoption of safer behavior.1
- The epidemic has stabilized or declined in most of the other countries, but within countries there is often wide regional variation in prevalence, such as in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Eritrea, and Burundi.1, 2
- West Africa and Central Africa (view country list). On average, prevalence rates are lower in these countries than in other regions of sub-Saharan Africa.1
- The Central African Republic has the highest prevalence rate in Central Africa – 6.3 percent of adults are infected.1 In West Africa, Gabon has the highest prevalence rate—5.9 percent.1
- Nigeria. In 2007, it was estimated that 2.6 million people were living with HIV; however the epidemics appears to have stabilized with a prevalence rate of 3.1 percent.1 Within the country, prevalence rates vary: about 1 in 10 pregnant women in the western zone are infected with HIV, compared to about 1 in 50 in the southern and southeastern zones.1 A population based survey in Cameroon also shows similar variation between HIV/AIDS levels in different regions.
- Prevalence has declined in Mali and urban areas of Burkina Faso, stabilized in Togo and Benin and may be increasing in Sierra Leone.1 Population-based surveys that elucidate trends in the epidemic and enhance the credibility of estimates are yet to be conducted in several countries, including Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
| Learn More... |
A View from an Orphan in Zimbabwe Living with HIV | read
A View from South Africa: Living with HIV/AIDS | watch video
Integrating HIV/AIDS and TB Laboratory Infrastructure in Zambia | watch video
Avert – AIDS in Africa | visit site
Decrease Violence to Decrease Risk of HIV among Women and Girls | read PDF
Blueprint for Building a Successful HIV Network in Kenya | read report
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Asia
(This region includes East, Southeast and South Asia.)2
| Number infected |
4.65 million (145 percent of global burden) |
| Adult prevalence rate |
0.3 percent (South and SE Asia) < 0.1 percent (East Asia) |
| Adults and children newly infected, 2008 |
355,000 |
| Adult and child deaths due to AIDS, 2008 |
329,000 |
| Access to ARVs |
25 percent |
| Main mode of transmission |
Commercial sex, injection drug use |
Despite a decline in new HIV infections in some Asian countries,3 this region has the second highest number of people newly infected with, living with, and dying from HIV/AIDS. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS accounts for 15 percent of the global burden.1
Prevalence rates of people living with HIV/AIDS are lowest in East Asia, with the majority of those living with HIV/AIDS in South and Southeast Asia.
- East Asia (view country list). The number of people living with HIV/AIDS nearly doubled between 2001 and 2008, extending to a total of 850,000 people. In 2008 alone, an estimated 75,000 people were newly infected and 59,000 died of AIDS. Nearly 90 percent of people living with AIDS in this region live in China3
- China.2 In the mid-1990s, HIV was transmitted through the distribution of contaminated plasma and injection drug use, accounting for nearly 70,000 people currently living with HIV/AIDS.3 21. Now drug use and sexual contact are the main modes of transmission—with injection drug accounting to just under half of infections.1
- As the disease has become more widespread among drug users and sex workers, transmission has expanded to their regular sex partners. Injection drug use among females has also risen. Sex between men, believed to be gaining ground as a mode of transmission, may cause 7 percent of newly reported infections.1, 2
- In several provinces, lack of basic knowledge about HIV transmission has been reported among groups at high risk of infection.2
- Overall, only 27 percent of persons had access to needed antiretroviral drugs at the end of 2006.8 Prevention programs are reaching about 45 percent of all injecting drug users, 25 percent of sex workers, and only 8 percent of men who have sex with men and 2 percent of pregnant women with HIV.8, 26
- Southeast Asia (view country list). The highest prevalence rates within Asia are found in Southeast Asia – in Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar.3 However, promoting condom use and access to treatment have made a significant impact on HIV/AIDS in these countries.
- Thailand's 100% Condom Programme encouraged universal condom use. Between 1991 and 2003, the number of new infections fell nearly 90 percent. In 2006, antiretroviral therapy was received by 88 percent of people needing medication.8, 27, 28
Thailand: Success in treatment and prevention
As one of the proponents of successful treatment and prevention efforts in Thailand, the Population and Community Development Association (PDA) was the recipient of the 2007 Gates Award for Global Health celebrating its more than 30 years of work in family planning and HIV prevention.
Formed in 1974 by Khun Mechai Viravaidya in response to the population crisis, the PDA has devoted its energy and resources toward increasing the provision of family planning and HIV prevention from health and development approaches. Beyond encouraging condom use and contraception, their programs address issues related to poverty, stigma, education and income generation and have positively impacted an estimated 10 million Thais.
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- Despite this overall success, there has been an alarming rise of HIV among injecting drug users (IDUs) in the country; between one-third and one-half of all IDUs are infected with HIV.1 Many face arrest and detention at the expense of services in prevention or treatment.29
- Women, many of whom are married, account for more than one-third of persons newly infected.1-3 HIV infections among men who have sex with men is high and increasing.2
- It is estimated that 21 percent of new infections are the result of sex between men.
- Vietnam. In 2007, the number of people living with HIV was 290,000, this is nearly a two-fold increase from 2001; the majority of those infected are sex workers, their clients and drug users.1, 2 Injection drug use largely drives the epidemic; studies confirm the co-presence of injection drug use and unsafe commercial sex among populations at high risk.
- Cambodia. The estimated prevalence rate and number of people living with HIV have been declining for nearly a decade, though evidence suggests that infections may rise among men who have sex with men.1, 2, 30 Since 1997, regular condom use nearly doubled among sex workers in several cities, suggesting that nearly all sex workers regularly use condoms.
- Myanmar. Prevalence is rising among some groups at high risk1: HIV infection rates are estimated to be greater than 30 percent among sex workers and injecting drug users.31 Despite these setbacks, since 1998 reductions in prevalence among pregnant women and members of the military have occurred.
- Indonesia & Malaysia. In these countries, high levels of HIV are linked to drug use.32 The AIDS epidemic in Indonesia is expanding at one of the fastest paces in Asia.1 In Indonesia transmission is also occurring through commercial sex and sex between men.
HIV Infections by Population in South and Southeast Asia
(excluding India), 20072
MSM – Men who have sex with men
IDU – Injecting drug users
CSW – Commercial sex workers
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In 2007, over half of individuals infected with HIV in this region were commercial sex workers (CSW), their clients, or injecting drug users (IDU).
Note: India is not included with the other countries in South and Southeast Asia in this figure. In India, heterosexual sex is the main mode of transmission, though distribution among specific groups in 2005 was unclear.
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- South Asia (view country list). HIV/AIDS is most problematic among groups at high risk of infection.23
- In India, the prevalence rate among adults is estimated to be 0.3 percent, though the burden is concentrated geographically and among particular populations.33
- Estimates from a new survey indicate that the number of adults and children with HIV is about 2.4 million, which is lower than earlier estimates of 5.7 million. The new estimates are more representative of the overall population due to the expansion of testing sites.
- Interventions are slowing the spread of HIV among sex workers, but infections are increasing among men who have sex with men and injecting drug users, with a concentration of IDUs in the Northeast. Members of these groups face stigmatization and punitive responses from law enforcement.
- In Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh, HIV is spread through networks of injecting drug users.1, 3, 4, 32 In Bangladesh and Nepal, HIV infections are also high among sex workers and migrant workers. High levels of HIV have been documented among Nepalese women and girls trafficked for sex work in India.33, 34
| Learn More... |
Smart Moves: China’s Grassroots AIDS Movement | read
Mr. Condom Goes to Washington | read
Interview with Mechai Viravaidya, Founder of PDA of Thailand | watch video
Breaking the Mold in Brazil and India, Changing Gender Norms for Young Men | read report
AIDS in India: Sex workers and Truck Drivers Playing Vital Roles | read more
From Despair to Action: One Man’s Account of Life with HIV in India | read article
A New Way in HIV Prevention | read
Solution Exchange for the AIDS Community in India | watch video
Avahan: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s India AIDS Initiative | watch video
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| 3 |
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Epstein H. 2007. The invisible cure: Africa, the West, and the fight against AIDS. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. |
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Williams BG, Gouws E, Lurie MN, Crush J. 2002. Spaces of vulnerability: migration and HIV/AIDs in South Africa. Cape Town, South Africa: South African Migration Project. |
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| 20 |
World Health Organization, UNAIDS, UNICEF. 2006. Botswana: epidemiological fact sheets on HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections. Available from: www.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/EFS2006/EFS_PDFs/EFS2006_BW.pdf |
| 21 |
World Health Organization, UNAIDS, UNICEF. 2006. Lesotho: epidemiological fact sheets on HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections. Available from:
www.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/EFS2006/EFS_PDFs/EFS2006_LS.pdf |
| 22 |
World Health Organization, UNAIDS, UNICEF. 2006. Zimbabwe: epidemiological fact sheets on HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections. Available from: www.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/EFS2006/EFS_PDFs/EFS2006_ZW.pdf |
| 23 |
International Treatment Preparedness Coalition. 2007. Missing the target #4. Available from: www.aidstreatmentaccess.org/itpc4thfinal.pdf |
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Asian Legal Resource Centre. 2005. Institutionalised torture, extrajudicial killings & uneven application of law in Thailand. Available from: www.alrc.net/PDF/ALRC_HRC_Thailand_2005.pdf |
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Poudel KC, Okumura J, Sherchand JB, Jimba M, Murakami I, Wakai S. 2003. Mumbai disease in far western Nepal: HIV infection and syphilis among male migrant-returnees and non-migrants. Tropical Medicine and International Health 8(10):933-9. |
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